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Powell is still speaking? Powder kegs of Pakistan, Israel, Russia and Ukraine have been lit, countdown to the gold outbreak

Wonderful Introduction:

Only by setting off can you reach your ideals and destinations, only by working hard can you achieve brilliant success, and only by sowing can you gain. Only by pursuing can one taste a dignified person.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Powell is still speaking? The powder keg of Pakistan, Israel, Russia and Ukraine has been ignited, and the gold outbreak is counting down." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

At present, the global market's attention is firmly attracted by three major focus: on one side is Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hall, Wyoming, where the market holds breath and waits for its hawkish policy signals; on the other side, the US's exceeding expectations of the PMI data injects a heart-warming agent into the dollar bulls, giving the dollar a chance to breathe. At the same time, some people are immersed in the beautiful fantasy of the U.S.-led Russian-Ukrainian conflict easing agreement, which all suppresses gold prices. At the same time, under the hustle and bustle of this series of focus events, the issue that Palestinian-Israeli had to fight and the agreement that Russia demanded was quietly brewing. The tension was on the verge of breaking out, but it had not received enough attention yet. And this overlooked powder keg may be brewing an opportunity for spot gold to explode.

Time Back to October 7, 2023, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) announced a new round of military action against Israel, launching at least 5,000 rockets from the Gaza Strip to Israel. Several armed personnel entered southern Israel's towns and clashed with the Israeli army, causing about 1,200 deaths in Israel on the same day and about 250 were taken back to the Gaza Strip to seize. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared Israel to have entered a "state of war". The Israeli army immediately began air strikes on the Gaza Strip, and a new round of Pakistan-Israel conflict broke out. There is memory of the war market.

On Friday, August 22, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that he had approved plans to expand the Gaza war and agreed to start negotiations to release the remaining hostages and end the war, Xinhua News Agency reported.

Netanyahu said in his speech to the military Gaza maker:"I came here to approve the IDF's plan to occupy Gaza City and defeat Hamas. At the same time, I directed to immediately negotiate the release of all our hostages and end the war, and the relevant clauses must be acceptable to Israel."

Hamas's position is fundamentally opposed to Israel's conditions: the probability of an agreement is slim

Netanyahu recently stated that he hopes to reach a one-step agreement, which requires the release of all remaining hostages, disarming Hamas and eliminating its military or ruling power in Gaza, while Israel maintains security control over the zone. Israeli families who were held hostage in Gaza said the conditions for Netanyahu to end the war were intended to undermine the agreement.

From Hamas' core position and actual interests, the possibility of reaching an agreement with Israel is extremely low. The "one-step-to-order" conditions proposed by Netanyahu are essentially in a fundamental conflict with Hamas' survival logic, which is a "unnegotiable red line" for Hamas. Keeping Israel in security control would be considered a "compromise". This means that the probability of reaching an agreement between the two sides is extremely low, and the risk of the escalation of the situation in Palestine and Israel will be further magnified due to the negotiation deadlock.

Israel's "must fight dilemma": wars are difficult to stop under internal and external pressure

Netanyahu is currently facing increasing international pressure to end the war. At the same time, most Israeli people in the country call for a ceasefire agreement, and reserve soldiers are exhausted due to the battle that has lasted for nearly two years. But he also faces threats from far-right ministers who will withdraw from his ruling coalition if he reaches a deal.

The residential areas of Gaza City are overcrowded, and hundreds of thousands of people are believed to have taken refuge here. Palestinian health officials said 70 people died in the past 24 hours. According to local health authorities, more than 62,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, but they did not say how many of them were xmhouses.combatants.

The Israeli military said on Wednesday that it had begun military action against the Jabaliye and Zaitong areas in northern Gaza City in recent days. The military said it would recruit 60,000 reserve personnel and extend the service period of another 20,000 reserve personnel. Polls show that about 80% of Israeli people want to end the battle in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages.

The military said its troops are currently focusing on attacking the outer area of Gaza City to consolidate xmhouses.combat control and destroy its so-called military infrastructure.

On Thursday, the Israeli military said it had begun contacting medical officials and international aid organizations in the Gaza Strip to prepare to transfer medical equipment from Gaza City to the southern part of the strip. Israel also began shipping tents and shelter to southern Gaza, where local people will be directed to the area. But Israel has provided little detail on how the mass evacuation will be carried out.

The plan to occupy Gaza City and relocate local refugees has attracted the vigilance of Israel's Western allies who are increasingly calling for Netanyahu to end the war. But Israel's most important allyThe United States has not criticized this. The U.S. President posted on his TruthSocial account this week: "Only after facing Hamas and destroying them can we see the release of the remaining detained personnel! The earlier this happens, the greater the possibility of success."

For Gaza residents, the upcoming military action means they may be displaced again. The United Nations said that about 1.9 million people (90% of Gaza's population) had been forced to move during the Israeli-Kazakhstan war.

Israeli officials believe that at least a portion of the remaining hostages were held in Gaza City, increasing their risk of death in the war. Hamas had previously executed hostages as Israeli troops approached. Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he had directed to shorten the timeline for occupying Gaza City.

The conditions for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are harsh and difficult to achieve.

According to Refinitiv, three sources who know the ideas of the Kremlin senior officials told Reuters on Friday (August 22) that Russian President Putin asked Ukraine to abandon the entire eastern Donbass region and join NATO ambitions, and demanded that Ukraine remain neutral and not join any military alliances, while banning Western troops from entering Ukraine. This runs contrary to Ukraine's core demand for actively joining NATO and maintaining territorial integrity.

Impact on the market

The unexpected strengthening of the US PMI data has injected a forceful shot into the US dollar, which has also aggravated concerns about a rebound in inflation, causing the market to gradually reduce expectations for the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate cut. The CMEFedWatch tool shows that the market estimates the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is 75%, down from 92% a week ago. The impact of the above boosted the US dollar index suppressed the price of gold, making gold less attractive to overseas buyers.

Under this background, the Russian-Ukrainian agreement and the Pakistan-Israel negotiations both touched the other side's core interests and negotiation bottom line, and it was difficult to have room for negotiation, and the escalation of conflict was about to break out. At the same time, the suppressed gold has a good price, and the smoke of gunpowder has created an excellent entry opportunity for gold trading.

In terms of technology, the opening price of 3326, that is, July 30, can be used as a key reference price, and actively look for opportunities to lay out long orders nearby. This position is the breakthrough price that forms the morning star pattern on August 1.

The current gold price is supported by the weekly X-ray and the 20-week moving average. At the same time, the daily level is also supported by the 100-day moving average and the recent upward channel line, around 3316. First look at 3348, which is the confluence of Wednesday's high and the 20 and 50 moving averages.

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Powell is still speaking? Powder kegs of Pakistan, Israel, Russia and Ukraine have been lit, countdown to the gold outbreak

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