Powell's dovish speech boosts gold prices, Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is highly uncertain

Basic news

On Monday (August 25, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,367/ounce, gold prices rebounded last Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hall central bank seminar strengthened the market's expectations for a rate cut in September; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.75/barrel, and there was uncertainty about a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine to support oil prices. The US Vice President said that it is "not impossible" to impose new sanctions on Russia.

Stock Market

Major U.S. stock index closed higher last Friday, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Index hitting a record high in its all-time closing. Earlier, Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hall seminar suggested that interest rate cuts may be cut in the near future, and investors flocked to the stock market.

Powell's remarks paved the way for the possible rate cuts at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, although he stressed that employment and inflation data released before this remained crucial.

Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, said Powell did what central bank officials do best at Jackson Hall, keeping the policy openness and sending a signal to households and businesses if interest rates are cut in September: The Fed has not stood by. Delaying will only increase the risk of a hard landing in the economy. ”

After Powell’s speech, traders raised their expectations for a rate cut in September, and currently believe the probability of a rate cut is close to 90%, xmhouses.compared to about 75% before the speech.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.89% to 45,631.74 points, surpassing the previous record closing point set on December 4, 2024. The S&P 500 rose 1.52% to 6466.91 points; the Nasdaq rose 1.88% to 21,496.54 points.

10 of the 11 sub-sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the consumer discretionary sector rising the most, reaching 3.18%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.7%, and most large growth stocks also rose sharply. Tesla led the gains, with an increase of 6.2%. The Russell 2000, which is highly sensitive to interest rates, soared 4.1%, the highest level this year.

The S&P 500 ended its five-day decline due to last Friday's rise, after a massive decline in heavyweight tech stocks put pressure on U.S. stocks last week.

Last week, the S&P and Dow both closed higher, while the Nasdaq fell 0.6% as investors sold large tech stocks last week in favor of lower-priced stocks.

U.S. stocks rebounded sharply from their April lows when the market was affected by President Trump's announcement of tariffs. Recently, the stock index has hit a record high again. A series of resilient profits, optimism about trade deals and the growing possibility of interest rate cuts are some of the main upward momentum, although some concerns remain.

Zak Stambor, senior analyst at retail and e-commerce at Emarketer, said investors cheered for Powell's remarks, as if the rate cuts were about to begin. But a rate cut cannot change consumer spending. The bigger question is whether this marks a real turn in Fed policy—or whether rising tariffs will force the Fed to put the brakes before the turn begins.

Earlier in the day, UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 for the second time in two months, betting on strong corporate profits, easing trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts.

In other popular stocks, Intel rose 5.5% as the White House announced its acquisition of 10% of the xmhouses.company last Friday. Coinbase also soared 6.5% as investors rushed to buy crypto-related stocks after Powell's speech.

Gold market

Gold prices rebounded last Friday, and Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hall central bank seminar strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to $3373.89 an ounce. US gold futures rose 1.1% to settle at $3,418.50. Powell said changes in the risk balance may require the Fed to adjust its policy stance, but he did not promise a rate cut. He was very cautious in his speech, acknowledging the increasing risks faced by the job market and warning that inflationary pressures remain.

Independent metals trader TaiWong said: "Powell's eighth and last speech at Jackson Hall unexpectedly opened the fast lane of interest rate cuts in September, which boosted all assets, including gold."

He added: "Can gold prices break through and maintain 3 in the next few days," he added.More than $400 will be very important. ”

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool shows that traders currently expect a 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, up from 75% before Powell’s speech. Powell’s speech means employment and inflation data released before the Fed’s policy meeting from September 16 to 17 are crucial.

U.S. President Trump said on Friday that he would fire her if Fed Director Cook does not resign.

Demand for physical gold in major Asian centers remained sluggish last week, with price volatility leaving buyers waiting and watching. Indian jewelers resumed buying before the big holiday season.

Spot silver rose 2.2% to $39.01 per ounce. Platinum rose 0.7 %, to $1,362.90, palladium rose 1.4% to $1,125.53.

Oil market

Oil prices stabilized last Friday, with oil prices rising for the first time in three weeks last week. Brent crude futures closed up 0.09% to $67.73. U.S. crude futures settled 0.22% to $63.66. Both contracts rose more than 1% in the previous trading day. Brent crude futures rose 2.9% last week and U.S. crude futures rose 1.4%.

UBS xmhouses.commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said everyone was waiting for Trump The president's next move, and in the xmhouses.coming days, nothing seems to happen.

U.S. President Trump said last Friday that he will see if Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky will work together to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said there is still uncertainty in the potential ceasefire and negotiations are not as fast as the market hopes.

Trump is seeking to arrange a summit with Putin and Zelensky as part of an effort to promote a peace agreement in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said there is no agenda for a possible summit between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky and accused Zelensky of "to everything" Say no.

Ukrainian President Zelensky said last Friday that Russia is doing everything he can to stop him from meeting with Putin and urged Ukrainian allies to impose new sanctions on Moscow if he is not interested in peace.

Trump said on Friday that he would judge in two weeks whether his efforts to end the conflict in Russia and Ukraine could make progress and again raise the possibility of imposing sanctions on Moscow.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, indicating strong demand, which also supported oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that inventories fell by 6 million barrels in the week ending August 15. Analysts had expected a 1.8 million barrel reduction.

Germany last FridayData released show that Europe's largest economy shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter, raising concerns about oil demand.

Investors are also looking for signals that the Fed will cut interest rates next month at the Jackson Hall economic conference in Wyoming. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out on Friday that the Fed may cut interest rates at next month's meeting but made no xmhouses.commitments, in which he acknowledged the increasing risks of the job market and the ongoing threat of rising inflation. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand, which may boost oil prices.

Foreign Market

The US dollar index fell 0.96% to 97.66 points last Friday, and the index traded around 98.7 points before Powell made a speech. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that interest rate cuts may be cut at the September meeting but did not make a promise.

The euro rose 1.06% to $1.1728, reaching a high of $1.1742, the highest since July 28. The dollar fell 1.08% against the yen to 146.77.

Powell said that while the labor market appears to be in equilibrium, it is a strange balance due to a significant slowdown in both supply and demand for workers, an unusual situation that shows that the downside risks of employment are rising. "If these risks become reality, they could happen quickly," Powell told international economists and policymakers at the annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hall, Wyoming. "They could happen quickly," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, Toronto, said Powell's speech was much more dovish than the market expected. "The dollar is plunging, the chances of a rate cut in September are rising, and market participants are clearly preparing for more easing policies xmhouses.coming."

According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are currently priced at 85% of the Fed's chances of a rate cut at its September 16-17 policy meeting, up from 72% earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool. They also raised their expected rate cuts by the end of the year from 48 basis points to 54 basis points.

Bank of America economists said, “Now, the burden of proof to prevent the September rate cut is clearly on the data,” said traders who have been raising expectations for a September rate cut following the unexpected weakening of the July jobs report. Consumer price data show that so far the impact of tariffs on inflation is limited. But higher-than-expected producer price inflation and some other economic data, including a strong August business activity survey, have tempered their views. Now, labor market data is expected to become the main driver of the Fed's future policies. "What he really means is that they are preparing for the turning point in labor market conditions, and the second part of the Fed's mission suddenly becomes even more important in determining policy settings." Last Friday, the dollar hit its best against the euro and the yen since its July job report was released on August 1Large single-day decline. The market is concerned about the Fed's independence after U.S. President Trump said he may seek to fire Fed Director Cook, and the dollar was under pressure from time to time last week.

Trump said last Friday that he would fire her if Cook did not resign, after he called on Cook to resign on Wednesday on charges of her mortgage holdings in Michigan and Georgia.

MoneyUSA's global foreign exchange trader Helen Given said: "Trump's remarks about Cook have once again raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, because it is becoming increasingly clear that the administration may want to reshape the Federal Reserve as it wants."

Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for being too slow in rate cuts, and traders expect that when Powell's term ends in May, he will appoint a more dovish person to replace Powell.

For other currencies, the pound rose 0.86% to $1.3527. The Australian dollar rose 1.14% against the dollar to $0.6492.

International News

U.S. Vice President: It is "not impossible" to impose new sanctions on Russia

On August 24 local time, US Vice President Vance said that it is not impossible to impose new sanctions on Russia to put pressure on Russia and end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The United States has multiple options to put pressure on Russia. Vance said that as the Trump administration pushes to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, security guarantees for Ukraine do not include US "ground forces." Vance said the United States will not send ground forces to Ukraine, but the United States will continue to play an active role in trying to ensure that the Ukrainians have the necessary security and confidence to stop the conflict.

European Central Bank Lagarde: Foreign workers have promoted the development of the euro zone economy

European Central Bank President Christina? Lagarde said in Jackson Hall on Saturday local time that the influx of foreign workers in recent years has injected momentum into the eurozone economy, helping to offset the impact of shorter working hours and lower real wages. Despite the decline in birth rates, immigration into the EU last year still brought its population to an all-time high. However, out of dissatisfaction among domestic people, governments are restricting new immigrants from entering the country. Lagarde pointed out that the increase in the number of labor force from outside the euro zone is an important factor in supporting the region's economy, although some industries have a growing preference for reduced hours. "Although these foreign laborers account for only about 9% of the total labor force in 2022, they have contributed half of the region's economic growth in the past three years. Without these contributions, the labor market situation may be more tense and output will be lower." She said that without the foreign labor, Germany's GDP would be about 6% lower than in 2019. She also added that Spain's strong economic performance since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic has also benefited greatly from the contribution of foreign labor. Last year, the EU population rose to a record high of 45.04 million, with net immigration offsetting the population for the fourth consecutive yearNatural reduction of impact. But it has also triggered a political backlash from local voters, with more and more of them starting to support far-right parties. For example, the new German government has suspended family reunification and resettlement programs in an attempt to win back voter support from the German Choice Party.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: The tight labor market is expected to continue to put upward pressure on wages

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said he expects the tight labor market to continue to put upward pressure on wages, reflecting his view that stable inflation is about to be established. Speaking at the annual seminar of the Fed’s Jackson Hole in Wyoming on Saturday, Ueda said: “Salary growth is spreading from large enterprises to small and medium-sized enterprises. Unless there is a major negative demand shock, the labor market is expected to remain tense and continue to put pressure on wages.” Ueda’s remarks may fuel speculation in the market that another rate hike this year will be raised, although he did not directly talk about monetary policy in his speech. The Bank of Japan has identified the country's labor shortage as a key factor in driving inflation higher through wage growth.

Powell's speech at Jackson Hall annual meeting was interpreted as a rate cut once

Santander US Capital Markets LLC. Chief U.S. economist Stephen Stanley said that some officials hope to cut interest rates multiple times, another camp only promised to cut once, and some officials opposed the rate cut. Stanley concluded that the September message is likely to be, “Slash interest rates once and then see what happens.” Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, believes that “bearing that there are two-sided risks and the disagreement within the xmhouses.committee, I think the easiest way to go in the future is to cut interest rates slowly.” Policymakers may start the process next month, "the subsequent actions will rely more on data."

Modi says India is about to become the world's third largest economy

Indian Prime Minister Modi quoted experts at a media event in New Delhi on Saturday that India is about to become the world's third largest economy and will contribute about 20% to global economic growth. Modi pointed out that India's growth story is due to macroeconomic stability and policy predictability, and its fiscal deficit is likely to remain around 4.4% of GDP. Modi said his government will advance the next generation of reforms. "For us, reforms are neither forced nor crisis-driven, but a cause related to xmhouses.commitments and beliefs." Modi said the proposed amendment to the tax law will benefit the people and businesses, increase productivity and promote economic development.

India will temporarily stop sending parcels to the United States

On the 23rd local time, the Indian Ministry of xmhouses.communications issued an announcement stating that India will temporarily stop sending parcels to the United States. U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on July 30 to suspend tax-free treatment for imported parcels worth $800 and below from August 29.

The Trump administration stopped Danish xmhouses.companies' large offshore wind power projects in the United States

The US federal government agency asked Denmark Vaux Energy to immediately stop all construction activities of a large offshore wind power project in the United States on August 22, on the grounds that the project's impact on US national security and oceans should be evaluated. Woxu Energy is one of the world's leading offshore wind power developers, controlled by the Danish government. The suspended offshore wind power project is located in the waters near Rhode Island, with a total investment of about US$1.5 billion. It is planned to be put into operation by the end of 2026 and is expected to provide power to about 350,000 households. According to Reuters, the construction progress of the project has reached 80%.

Murts said the German economy was facing a "structural crisis".

German Chancellor Merts said in a speech on Saturday that solving Germany's economic difficulties is much more difficult than he originally expected. Merz pointed out that the German economy is facing a "structural crisis" due to the continued high energy costs and the United States' trade tariffs. He pointed out that Volkswagen's after-tax profit fell by 36% in the second quarter, which is just one of many signals. "A large part of our economy is no longer truly xmhouses.competitive, and it's a question about price xmhouses.competitiveness," Merz said, not mentioning any specific businesses. "The product quality is still good, and the xmhouses.company's leadership is aware of these challenges. But the overall situation in Germany has been not ideal for the past decade."

Ukraine: Zelensky only discusses territorial issues with Putin

According to the Russian Satellite News website on August 23, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kslizia said in an interview with NBC News that Zelensky was only preparing to discuss territorial issues in his meeting with Russian President Putin. He said: "When we talk about territorial issues, I think President Zelensky has made it clear that he is ready to sit down with President Putin to discuss these issues, and the actual contact line is the starting point of dialogue on territorial issues." The report said that on the 18th, US President Trump hosted Zelensky and European leaders at the White House. After the talks, Zelensky said that the territorial issue will be decided by Russia and Ukraine, but there is currently no specific date for the meeting between the two sides. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said on the 22nd that there is no arrangement for a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but the Russian President is willing to meet with him as long as the meeting agenda is ready.

The U.S. Texas Senate passed the bill to re-draw the congressional districts

According to US media reports, in the early morning of the 23rd local time, the U.S. Texas Senate passed the bill to re-draw the state's congressional districts with 18 votes to 11. The bill is expected to give Republicans an additional five additional House seats in Texas in the midterm elections next year. The bill has been passed in the Texas House of Representatives, and after the Texas Senate passes, the bill will be submitted to Republican Gov. Abbott. Abbott had previously said he would sign the bill.

Domestic News

The annual growth rate of my country's xmhouses.computing power scale reaches 30% Experts: 20AI will contribute more than 11 trillion GDP in 35 years. Data shows that in recent years, the annual growth rate of my country's total xmhouses.computing power has reached about 30%. Driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the demand for intelligent xmhouses.computing power has shown a rapid growth trend. The "Smart xmhouses.computing Industry Development Research Report (2025)" released by the China Telecom Research Institute shows that as artificial intelligence large models accelerate the empowerment of industry applications and smart terminals, it will further help the smart xmhouses.computing power industry to flourish. Rao Shaoyang, director of the Institute of Strategic Development of China Telecom Research Institute, said that by 2035, artificial intelligence will contribute more than 11 trillion yuan to my country's GDP, accounting for about 4% to 5% of GDP. This may drive the demand for xmhouses.computing power to grow ten times or even hundreds of times. The head of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it will guide local governments to reasonably deploy intelligent xmhouses.computing facilities, gradually improve the quality of intelligent xmhouses.computing power supply, and meet the needs of emerging industries and future industrial development. It is expected that in 2025, the scale of smart xmhouses.computing power in my country will grow by more than 40%.

In July, the national electricity market transaction volume increased by 7.4% year-on-year. Data released by the National Energy Administration today (August 24) showed that in July 2025, the national electricity market transaction volume reached 624.6 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Among them, the electricity transaction volume in the province was 461.4 billion kWh, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year; the electricity transaction volume across provinces and regions was 163.2 billion kWh, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year; the electricity transaction volume in green electricity was 25.6 billion kWh, an increase of 43.2% year-on-year.

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